State of the Market

VIEW THIS MONTH’S NEWSLETTER w/ LISTINGS

Greetings from Crested Butte,
Thankfully, the snow has arrived in our valley and the ski resort is preparing for opening day on November 27th and the Thanksgiving Holiday. People that live in ski towns get emotional over things like the promise of another ski season, snow totals on the Pow Cam (6 inches this morning), and long lift lines. People also get emotional over things like jobs, wages and affordable housing. In Crested Butte, emotions are running high. Housing is getting expensive again and more people than ever want to make a life here.

It was not that long ago the local housing market was digging out of that nasty multi-year recession. From the crash in 2008 to 2012 we struggled to sell anything to anyone. Our sales volume was as low as investor confidence. In 2012 our total residential sales volume was below $90 million. For perspective, we did $90 million every quarter during the market boom of 2005. The post 2008 market crash era was wrought with a wave of foreclosures and distressed property sales. Many people including locals lost their homes and condos, entire subdivisions went down, developers went bankrupt, jobs dried up and many people including contractors and tradesmen left town looking for work. It was an emotional time to say the very least.

The housing market began to slowly recover in 2013 when we cracked $125 million in residential sales volume across the Upper East River Valley market (CB South to Mt Crested Butte) – the first time since 2008 we surpassed $100 million in sales. A few years later in 2016, we reached $161 million in sales volume. The hangover from the market downturn kept prices low and properties attainable and buyers responded. The median residential sales price back then was just $322,000.

In 2017, the market jumped to 302 residential sales and $205 million in volume with our median sales price rising to $497,000. 2017’s impressive activity caused would-be sellers to take note. By 2018, sellers began to price their offerings higher, testing buyer demand and for the most part the market responded. We did less volume ($192 million) and less transactions (288 sales) last year but the median sold price rose higher to $517,000.

Sure enough, home prices have continued to rise in 2019. Year-to-date we’ve realized just $150 million in home and condo sales spread across 185 transactions. But, the average sales price for all residential real estate (homes, condos and townhouses combined) is $808,000 and the median sales price is now almost $600,000. It is a basic economics lesson: values rise, homes become less attainable for most people and volume drops. This is a significant market change and the very reason emotions are running high again in Crested Butte.

On the flip side, the vacant land market segment in our valley is still trying to recapture similar values from the pre-2008 market crash era. Right now, there are 270 land listings for sale across the Upper East River Valley. Only 3 of these listings are under contract. 85 land properties have sold year-to-date but prices still hover around 60% of their pre market crash value. Buying land is still very much our market’s best value proposition.

The exception to this condition is the Town of Crested Butte market area where years of no growth political policy making has created scarcity (we are over 90% build out) and a surging value condition that shows no signs of letting up. In 2019, 6 homesites located in the town limits sold at an average price of over $1.2 million. The best homesites in town with views and open space are now listed as high as $1.5 million and due to scarcity I believe these values will rise further.

Thanks for reading today. Enjoy the upcoming holiday, take a deep breath and go for a ski. For a deeper perspective of our local market please contact me anytime.

Channing Boucher
Broker Associate
LIV Sothebys International Realty
401 Elk Avenue
Crested Butte CO 81224
970-596-3228